The King’s Cut Vol. 2 Coffee and War

So… What Does War Have to Do with Your Morning Coffee?

Alright. Let’s talk about something that feels far removed from roasting drums and cupping tables — but really isn’t. We know this, anyone who is half aware knows that market sensitive items.... are sensitive.

Will the escalating conflict in the Middle East impact the coffee industry? - Global Coffee Report

The conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran is obviously heavy stuff. Politics. Military movement. Oil. Global tension. But whenever something like this escalates, I immediately start asking:

What does this mean for coffee? *Gasps*

I can't help myself; I'm a coffee business ridden person!

 Because whether we like it or not, coffee doesn’t exist in a bubble.

First Thing I Watch? Oil (lol, who would've thought)

Whenever conflict hits the Middle East, oil is usually the first domino. And oil moving up affects everything. Guess what the 2nd largest trade item is after oil? *sips my mug of COFFEE*

After Crude Oil, Coffee Beans are Second Most Traded Raw Material Worldwide - Space Coast Daily

Fuel prices climb.
Shipping costs climb.
Insurance costs for cargo climb.

And coffee? Coffee moves a lot.

Green coffee crosses oceans. It moves from origin to port, port to ship, ship to warehouse, warehouse to roaster. Every step burns fuel. So, when oil spikes, the cost of moving coffee spikes. So on so forth. 

Even if the war isn’t anywhere near Colombia, Brazil, Ethiopia, or Honduras… the logistics system they rely on is global. This is also the equator of the planet we're talking about. Coffee is growing there and doesn't care about country conflicts. 

That’s the connection.

Freight, Containers & Delays

Another thing people forget, when tensions rise in regions that control major shipping routes — like the Strait of Hormuz or Suez — shipping companies get cautious.

Routes change.
Insurance premiums go up.
Transit times get longer. And time is money. Longer transit times mean tighter inventories.

If you’re a large importer, you feel it.
If you’re a small roaster buying through importers… you eventually feel it too. Sometimes in different ways.

It might not happen overnight. But it trickles down. Just as everything does. It sometimes feels like if we sneeze wrong, we could conjure the next "uh oh". 

Inflation Pressure Hits Small Businesses Hardest

Here’s the real kicker. Even if green coffee prices don’t skyrocket immediately, everything around it might: Packaging, Electricity, Freight, Labor, Equipment parts

Small batch roasters and specialty coffee shops don’t have giant corporate cushions. When costs rise, margins tighten fast. That forces hard decisions:

Absorb the cost?

Raise prices?

Reduce offerings?

Delay expansion?

None of those are fun. It's even a possibility that none of these are even necessary yet. All we can do half the time is wait and see, right? 

What About Coffee Futures?

When global uncertainty increases, markets get jumpy.

Commodity traders start pricing in risk and commodity buyers start panic buying. That can create volatility in coffee futures even before there’s a true supply problem. Sometimes fear moves markets just as much as actual shortages. In fact, that really is the leading shortage cause in anything. Change my mind.

That doesn’t always mean disaster. But it does mean instability — and instability makes planning harder.

Here’s the Balanced Take

Now I’m not saying this war automatically means $20 bags of coffee next week. Coffee origins aren’t directly in the conflict zone. Crops are still growing. Farmers are still producing.

But coffee is a globally traded agricultural product. And when energy, shipping, and financial markets shake, coffee feels some of that tremor.

That’s just reality. We'll go to bed tonight all the same.

The Silver Lining (Yes, There Is One)

Moments like this also highlight why Strong importer relationships matter, Diversified sourcing matters, Responsible buying practices matter, running lean, smart operations matter. And on the consumer side? It reminds people that quality coffee is still one of the most affordable daily luxuries out there. A lot can feel unstable globally. But that morning cup? Still steady. Even if it gives you the gitters (see what I did there?).

Final Thought (For a Monday)

If there’s one thing I’ve learned in this industry, it’s this:

Coffee survives a lot. And this is honestly nothing we're not use to seeing.
Weather, Political shifts, Currency swings, Pandemics.

The market adjusts. It always does. So, we watch. We stay informed. We plan smart. And we keep roasting.

That’s King’s Cut Vol. 2. Stay aware but also don't panic. At the end of the day, we've seen worse. - DB